ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its initial ratings for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for both BYU and Utah in the Big 12 is promising. While the Cougars and Utes are expected to contend for the conference crown, their paths to success are quite different. Personally, I think the FPI's projections offer a fascinating glimpse into the potential of these teams, but they also raise questions about the index's accuracy and the factors it considers. What makes this particularly fascinating is the stark contrast between the two teams' FPI scores and the implications this has for their respective seasons. From my perspective, the FPI's predictions highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each team, but they also suggest that the Big 12 may be more competitive than expected. One thing that immediately stands out is the high projected win total for BYU, which is expected to finish with 8.7 wins and a 16.5% chance of winning the Big 12. This is a significant improvement from last year, when the Cougars were projected for 8.0 wins and a 12.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff. What many people don't realize is that BYU's strength of schedule is only ninth among Big 12 programs, which is a notable drop from last year when they were 74th. This suggests that the Cougars may be facing easier competition this season, which could impact their overall success. If you take a step back and think about it, the FPI's projections for BYU raise a deeper question: How much weight should we give to the index's predictions, especially when it comes to strength of schedule? This season, BYU will host Notre Dame, ranked No. 3 in the FPI, on October 17, which could be a significant test for the Cougars. Their highest-rated Big 12 home opponent is Arizona, ranked No. 34, which will provide a challenging matchup. However, BYU's strength of schedule may be a concern, as they won't face the conference's highest-ranked team, Texas Tech, which is ranked No. 10. In contrast, Utah has a lower projected win total of 7.7, but a higher chance of making the College Football Playoff (11.1%) and winning the Big 12 (5.9%). The Utes' strength of schedule is 13th among Big 12 programs, which is a favorable number for a program returning several key players on both sides of the ball. This is a notable improvement from last year, when Utah's strength of schedule was sixth-highest in the Big 12. What this really suggests is that the FPI's projections for Utah may be more accurate, as they are returning more key players and have a more favorable strength of schedule. The Utes' highest-rated Big 12 opponent is BYU, ranked No. 20, which will provide a challenging matchup. Their highest-rated Big 12 road opponent is Arizona, ranked No. 34, which will also be a tough test. In nonconference play, Utah will face Arkansas, ranked No. 47 in the FPI, which could be a significant challenge. In conclusion, ESPN's FPI projections offer a fascinating glimpse into the potential of BYU and Utah in the 2026 college football season. While the Cougars have a high projected win total and a strong nonconference schedule, their strength of schedule may be a concern. Meanwhile, the Utes have a lower projected win total but a more favorable strength of schedule and a higher chance of making the College Football Playoff. These projections raise questions about the FPI's accuracy and the factors it considers, but they also highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each team and the potential for an exciting Big 12 season.
